What’s happening with St. John’s real estate prices this fall?

Even as interest rates ease and national housing activity cools, St. John’s home values continue to hold firm—proving the local market’s resilience in a changing economy.

A National Market Moving Toward Balance

Across Canada, the housing landscape is shifting. National home sales rose 1.1% month-over-month in August, while new listings climbed 9% year-over-year, signaling a gradual return to balance between buyers and sellers.

The Bank of Canada’s rate cut to 2.50% on September 17—with more easing expected into 2026—has helped spark renewed interest from buyers who were sidelined earlier this year. At the same time, new-home starts dropped 16% month-over-month, tightening supply in many cities and keeping prices elevated.

St. John’s: Local Prices Lead the East Coast

Here in St. John’s Metro, the market remains one of the most stable in Atlantic Canada. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark reached $401,400 in August 2025, up 13.2% year-over-year.

Detached homes lead the pack at $419,900, representing a 13.5% annual gain—a strong pace that reflects both limited inventory and consistent buyer demand.

Inventory remains tight, with just 3.5 months of supply for detached homes and 2.6 months for multi-family properties, marking the lowest Q2 on record. Even with housing starts projected to rise 21% in 2025 (about 1,058 new units), the pipeline isn’t large enough to cool prices significantly yet.

What It Means for You

Sellers: The St. John’s market still leans in your favor. Homes that are well-prepared and competitively priced continue to move quickly, especially those under $500,000. With buyer confidence returning, now’s a strategic time to list before supply expands in 2026.

Buyers: Rate cuts have improved affordability, but the effects take time to show up in pricing. Be prepared for continued competition below the $500K mark, and make sure your financing is pre-approved to act quickly on the right home.

Investors: With rental vacancy around 2% and steady in-migration supporting demand, the fundamentals remain strong. Conservative rent and expense numbers will help ensure your returns stay solid even if price growth moderates.

The 6–12 Month Outlook

Looking ahead, the St. John’s housing market should remain steady through the next year. Rate relief will keep sales momentum positive, while price growth cools from double digits to a more moderate, sustainable pace.

Unless there’s a major jump in listings or a shift in oil-sector activity, expect flat-to-slightly-up prices through 2026. For both buyers and sellers, that translates to a market where smart timing and preparation matter more than ever.

Takeaway

The bottom line? St. John’s real estate prices remain strong—driven by low supply, improving affordability, and steady local demand. Whether you’re thinking about listing, buying your first home, or investing, this fall presents opportunities worth exploring with the right strategy.

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Ready to Talk About Your Next Move?

If you’re considering a sale, purchase, or investment in St. John’s Metro, let’s connect.
📩 Email Ryan Elliott, REALTOR® at relliott@royallepage.ca to schedule a personal market consultation today.